Mythic+ Group Comps & Dungeon Success Rates (Week 8)

Now that Week 8 of Season 1 has concluded, we’ve officially seen every possible combination of Affixes in keystone levels up to +12. Happily, as there don’t seem to be any big composition shifts in specific weeks, it does appear that the changes made to the Affix system for The War Within were mostly successful in that all classes seem to be able to manage each of the Xal’atath’s Bargain Affixes. Certainly, there are some classes that perform better, but Blizzard does seem to have gotten away from required classes and specs due to Affix combinations.

This week, we’re adding a new set of graphs where we look at the total number of Mythic+ dungeons completed each week (in-time) at the various keystone levels. As we’ve now seen 8 full weeks, it’s very interesting to see the progression of the playerbase as a whole!

Check it out for yourself in this week’s Data Dive, on top of our standard graph sets highlighting the top group compositions being used, as well as the dungeon success rates at various keystone levels.

Table of Contents

Affixes & Keystone Thresholds

DUNGEON AFFIXES

For a quick reminder, here’s how the Mythic+ Affixes work in The War Within:


As of the start of Week 7, Blizzard implemented a nerf to the
Challenger’s Peril affix, whereby the time penalty per death will remain at 15 seconds, but the affix will add an additional 90 seconds to the overall dungeon timer. This nerf appears to have been applied retroactively, and has been in place since.

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KEYSTONE THRESHOLDS

The graphs used in our Data Dives to display the most popular group compositions for timed keystones completed all use the following keystone thresholds:

KEYSTONE LEVEL	AFFIXES
+2 to +6	Xal’atath’s Bargain + Fortified or Tyrannical
+7 to +9	All of +2 to +6, and Challenger’s Peril
+10 to +11	All of +2 to +9, and the other of Fortified or Tyrannical
+12 and Up	Xal’atath’s Guile + Fortified and Tyrannical

Most Popular Group Compositions

These graphs show the top 5 group compositions used during Week 8 for timed Keystones at each of the designated thresholds (see above).

The Xal’atath’s Bargain affix for Week 8 was Xal’atath’s Bargain: Voidbound, and the first “Base Affix” added at +2 was Fortified.

The Paladin takeover is now complete, with Protection Paladins in the top 5 comps for every keystone threshold last week. We expect it won’t be long before the “Overall” graph is also fully paladinized across the top.

But the Paladins aren’t alone this week with their ascension, as Disc Priests have officially taken over from Restoration Shamans in each of the keystone ranges.

As groups continue to accrue gear, player power, and familiarity with the dungeons and routes, it tracks that Restoration Shamans might fall out of favour slightly. Their early rise to the top was partially due to their high HPS throughput and mob-control utility, which was needed earlier in the Season for groups to survive. Disc Priests bring a strong damage profile for a healer, and utility such as Mind Soothe and Dominate Mind. However, we suspect that the most attractive part of the Discipline kit to bring to Mythic+ is, as per usual, Power Infusion.

Success Rates by Dungeon

We continue with our other Data Dive staple, as we examine how often groups were able to successfully time each of the Dungeons available for Mythic+ in Season 1, at various keystone levels. Instead of looking at the same keystone ranges as above, we will now hone in on some specific levels that players may be targeting for rewards.

To illustrate the Success Rates, we use a Box Plot graph.


We wanted to introduce these graphs indicating Success Rate by Dungeon because we believe they can help your dungeon groups make informed decisions. If your goal is to time any dungeon at level +9 or +10 to get Gilded Crests and/or Mythic-level gear, or if you’re trying to get Heroic-level gear at +7, these graphs can help you determine which dungeons will statistically give you the higher chances of success!

WHAT DOES THIS DATA MEAN FOR ME?

Grim Batol continues to be the dungeon with the lowest success rate as soon as we hit the +10 threshold, and actually moved down a bit at +9 this Week. If your goal is to run +10s for Mythic-level Vault gear, this data suggests that you might want to avoid GB, and instead should opt for Mists of Tirna Scithe and The Dawnbreaker for the highest chances of success. Ara-Kara, City of Echoes also looks to have a strong success rate, but you’ll want to take notice of the Whiskers for this dungeon compared to Mists and Dawnbreaker. There’s a lot of variance in success – meaning that if you head to Ara-Kara, you have a good chance of timing the dungeon, but it is by no means guaranteed.

Interestingly enough, when we move from +9 to +10, the success rates of The Necrotic Wake go up, comparatively. The Whiskers definitely still indicate a big variance, however, so that success could be an outlier.

Keep in mind that, until level +12, each week includes a different Xal’atath’s Bargain affix, so one week’s data may not necessarily carry over. It is, however, a good starting point!

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HOW TO INTERPRET BOX PLOT GRAPHS

The X-Axis shows Time Remaining as % of Dungeon Timer. As 0% means a dungeon was completed, in-time, at the exact timer (00:00:00 time remaining), higher numbers (5% and up) mean that the dungeon was completed with time remaining. The higher the number, the faster the dungeon was completed by percentage of the timer. Dungeons on the left of 0% were thus depleted, and where they land on the X-Axis shows by what percentage of the timer they were depleted.

The box in the middle of each bar shows the Inter Quartile Range, or IQR. This is where the middle 50% of dungeons fall. If the box is small, it indicates that dungeon completion times were very consistent. If the box is large, it means there is greater variability in completion times.

The line in the middle of the box represents the Median Clear Time. If this line is closer to the left of the box, this indicates the distribution is skewed towards slower times, and vice versa.

The Whiskers, the lines that come out of each side of the box, indicate the range of the data outside the IQR (the middle 50% of all dungeons completed). This shows how far the data spreads. If the Whiskers are long, it suggests there is a wide range of dungeon clear times, suggesting the performance varies more. Shorter Whiskers indicate more consistent results, and if they are asymmetrical, it shows that the data is skewed in a particular direction (depleted vs. completed in-time).

Outliers are singular dungeons that fall way out of the range. We have only chosen to show positive outliers, meaning dungeons that were completed significantly faster than the average. Those are represented by a dot, should they exist.

Total Mythic+ Dungeons Completed

In this new set of graphs, we’re looking at the Total Number of Mythic+ Dungeons Completed at the various keystone ranges, on a Week to Week basis. These graphs show only dungeons that were completed in-time, so it’s important to note that depleted keystones are not represented here.

The data pretty much speaks for itself, but we do really enjoy this set of graphs and how the progression of the playerbase as a whole has shifted to higher keystones. As expected, the +7 to +9 range is pretty consistent-ish from Week to Week, while the lower keystones decrease as players move up to higher levels and rewards.

While this graph doesn’t include depleted or incomplete keystones, the All Keystones graph does indicate that while community sentiment might indicate that Mythic+ is falling out of favour, the data suggests otherwise. Players continue to do keystones in large quantities every week, around the World!

Insights

As Week 8 comes to a close, we’ve seen a distinct shift in the “meta”. However, it does appear to be solidifying and we don’t anticipate many changes moving forward for the rest of Season 1. That is mostly because the big changes we’ve seen, such as Protection Paladins and Discipline Priests overtaking the Tank/Healer spots, indicate that groups are now looking at ways to increase their damage done, as opposed to focusing on survivability or utility. Pulls are getting bigger and players are able to take on more and more as we get stronger.

However, we will be keeping a keen eye out on compositions in the next few weeks, as we are partway through the Mythic Dungeon International this Season. Group A and Group B have concluded, and we are just over a week away from the Global Finals. It is not unheard of for the meta to shift, especially in higher keystones, as a result of new tech or routes showcased by the MDI teams.

Additionally, now that the “meta” is more or less determined… it makes it that much more fun to Break...😏


Stay tuned for more Data Dives, including a special MDI roundup after the Global Finals, coming soon!

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