Mythic+ Group Comps & Dungeon Success Rates (Week 7)

As Week 7 of the Season comes to a close, we’re seeing a substantial shift in the Tank meta across all keystone levels. We saw the beginnings of it after Week 6, but this past week has solidified that it is, indeed, the Age of the Protection Paladin!

See for yourself below in this week’s Data Dive, as we continue to look at the evolution of the top group compositions being used, as well as the dungeon success rates at various keystone levels.

Table of Contents

Affixes & Keystone Thresholds

DUNGEON AFFIXES

For a quick reminder, here’s how the Mythic+ Affixes work in The War Within:


As of the start of Week 7, Blizzard implemented a nerf to the
Challenger’s Peril affix, whereby the time penalty per death will remain at 15 seconds, but the affix will add an additional 90 seconds to the overall dungeon timer. This nerf appears to have been applied retroactively, and was in place for the entirety of this past week’s dungeons.

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KEYSTONE THRESHOLDS

The graphs used in our Data Dives to display the most popular group compositions for timed keystones completed all use the following keystone thresholds:

KEYSTONE LEVEL	AFFIXES
+2 to +6	Xal’atath’s Bargain + Fortified or Tyrannical
+7 to +9	All of +2 to +6, and Challenger’s Peril
+10 to +11	All of +2 to +9, and the other of Fortified or Tyrannical
+12 and Up	Xal’atath’s Guile + Fortified and Tyrannical

Most Popular Group Compositions

These graphs show the top 5 group compositions used during Week 7 for timed Keystones at each of the designated thresholds (see above).

The Xal’atath’s Bargain affix for Week 7 was Xal’atath’s Bargain: Devour, and the first “Base Affix” added at +2 was Tyrannical.

The Rise of the Paladins continues! We’re seeing Retribution Paladins continue to be used extensively in keystones up to +12, at which point they do tend to fall off. Their tank brethren, however, have pushed past that +12 ceiling with gusto, now finding themselves as part of the most popular group composition for +12s and up for the entire season. Until this week, Protection Paladins were in only 2 of the 5 top group comps for +12 and up for the Week, and weren’t in the Overall graph at all. This week, they’re in all 5 compositions for +12 and up, and have taken top spot Overall.



Unfortunately for their healing counterparts, Holy Paladins are not seeing much use in the higher keystones, as Restoration Shamans continue to dominate, with Disc Priests coming up in 2nd place, albeit still significantly behind Shamans.

Success Rates by Dungeon

We continue onwards with our other Data Dive staple, as we examine how often groups were able to successfully time each of the Dungeons available for Mythic+ in Season 1, at various keystone levels. Instead of looking at the same keystone ranges as above, we will now hone in on some specific levels that players may be targeting for rewards.

To illustrate the Success Rates, we use a Box Plot graph.


We wanted to introduce these graphs indicating Success Rate by Dungeon because we believe they can help your dungeon groups make informed decisions. If your goal is to time any dungeon at level +9 or +10 to get Gilded Crests and/or Mythic-level gear, or if you’re trying to get Heroic-level gear at +7, these graphs can help you determine which dungeons will statistically give you the higher chances of success!

WHAT DOES THIS DATA MEAN FOR ME?

If we compare to Last Week’s Data Dive, it’s interesting to note that the success rates for City of Threads at the +7 and +9 thresholds seem to have decreased a significant amount, whereas Siege of Boralus appears to have improved. This may be a result of the changes to Challenger’s Peril, but it does suggest that at least Siege of Boralus is perhaps a little easier to navigate at these levels. It is still in the bottom of half of success rates, so take that data with a grain of salt.

Grim Batol continues to be the dungeon with the lowest success rate as soon as we hit the +10 threshold, but prior to that it’s actually in the top half of dungeons. If your goal is to run +10s for Mythic-level Vault gear, this data suggests that you might want to avoid GB, and instead should opt for Mists of Tirna Scithe and The Dawnbreaker for the highest chances of success. Ara-Kara, City of Echoes also looks to have a strong success rate, but you’ll want to take notice of the Whiskers for this dungeon. There’s a lot of variance in success – meaning that if you head to Ara-Kara, you have a good chance of timing the dungeon, but you could also have a very rough go, depending on your group.

Keep in mind that, until level +12, each week includes a different Xal’atath’s Bargain affix, so one week’s data may not necessarily carry over. It is, however, a good starting point!

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HOW TO INTERPRET BOX PLOT GRAPHS

The X-Axis shows Time Remaining as % of Dungeon Timer. As 0% means a dungeon was completed, in-time, at the exact timer (00:00:00 time remaining), higher numbers (5% and up) mean that the dungeon was completed with time remaining. The higher the number, the faster the dungeon was completed by percentage of the timer. Dungeons on the left of 0% were thus depleted, and where they land on the X-Axis shows by what percentage of the timer they were depleted.

The box in the middle of each bar shows the Inter Quartile Range, or IQR. This is where the middle 50% of dungeons fall. If the box is small, it indicates that dungeon completion times were very consistent. If the box is large, it means there is greater variability in completion times.

The line in the middle of the box represents the Median Clear Time. If this line is closer to the left of the box, this indicates the distribution is skewed towards slower times, and vice versa.

The Whiskers, the lines that come out of each side of the box, indicate the range of the data outside the IQR (the middle 50% of all dungeons completed). This shows how far the data spreads. If the Whiskers are long, it suggests there is a wide range of dungeon clear times, suggesting the performance varies more. Shorter Whiskers indicate more consistent results, and if they are asymmetrical, it shows that the data is skewed in a particular direction (depleted vs. completed in-time).

Outliers are singular dungeons that fall way out of the range. We have only chosen to show positive outliers, meaning dungeons that were completed significantly faster than the average. Those are represented by a dot, should they exist.

Insights

We have shown that Protection Paladins are on a takeover across the board, so let’s take a brief look at why they have dramatically increased in popularity over the last couple of weeks.

There are a number of factors potentially at play, including community perception and visible representation of the spec at high levels from players such as Yoda. In terms of actual gameplay changes, the most likely culprit is the big buffs made to the Lightsmith Hero Talent tree a few weeks ago, with the reset on October 8th. These buffs made Lightsmith the preferred choice over Templar, and we’re now seeing the results on the Leaderboards.

Simply put, Lightsmith is both easier to play and does more damage than Templar. It has a lower skill ceiling than Templar which requires players to maintain their uptime on Shake the Heavens, and to use timers to monitor use of Eye of Tyr. Additionally, Templar has Avenger’s Shield very low in the priority rotation, which is a nice button to be pushing regularly in Mythic+ for the interrupt and silence effects. Check out this write-up from Wowhead on the differences between Lightsmith and Templar for more info.

Furthermore, as groups organically get stronger as the Season progresses through more gear and understanding of the dungeons, the DPS potential of Protection Paladin is becoming more apparent. It helps when they’re able to stay alive long enough to pew pew, after all! They are currently the tank class with the highest damage potential, which is an important factor in pushing keys.



Stay tuned for more Data Dives, coming soon!

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