Mythic+ Comps, Total Keystones, Dungeon Success Rates, & NEW Spec Popularity (Week 11)

We’ve given our graphs a bit of a facelift this week, and are bringing you even more awesome data! As the holiday season gets into full swing, and Season 2 looms ever closer, it’s been interesting to view how Season 1 of The War Within has progressed over time. The level squish that came with the new expansion, as well as the difficulty levels ramping up with the various affix sets, has certainly created an interesting Mythic+ ecosystem.

We’re excited to see if Blizzard implements any changes in Season 2, or if they’re happy with how things have gone. At the time of writing, the highest keystone completed is a +19, so we’re curious to see if that type of ceiling was the developer’s goal. Will we see a +20 completed before the New Year??

That being said, it’s time to dive into the Data! As mentioned, our graphs have undergone some visual tweaks, additional data, and yet another new set of graphs. Onwards to the Week 11 Data Dive!

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Table of Contents

Affixes & Keystone Thresholds

DUNGEON AFFIXES

For a quick reminder, here’s how the Mythic+ Affixes work in The War Within:


As of the start of Week 7, Blizzard implemented a nerf to the Challenger’s Peril affix, whereby the time penalty per death will remain at 15 seconds, but the affix will add an additional 90 seconds to the overall dungeon timer. This nerf was applied retroactively, and has been in place since.

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KEYSTONE THRESHOLDS

The graphs used in our Data Dives to display the most popular group compositions for timed keystones completed all use the following keystone thresholds:

KEYSTONE LEVEL	AFFIXES
+2 to +6	Xal’atath’s Bargain + Fortified or Tyrannical
+7 to +9	All of +2 to +6, and Challenger’s Peril
+10 to +11	All of +2 to +9, and the other of Fortified or Tyrannical
+12 to +16	Xal’atath’s Guile + Fortified and Tyrannical
+16 and Up	Xal’atath’s Guile + Fortified and Tyrannical

Most Popular Group Compositions

These graphs show the top 30 group compositions used during Week 11 for timed Keystones at each of the designated thresholds (see above).

The Xal’atath’s Bargain affix for Week 11 was Xal’atath’s Bargain: Devour, and the first “Base Affix” added at +4 was Tyrannical.

The trends across all key levels continue, with the same specs being used frequently along the most popular group compositions. With these new graphs though, we can actually see what percentage each group composition made up of the total dungeons completed in-time. This is more detailed data than previously, where we were just able to show the total number of dungeons ran by each of the top compositions.

If you cycle through the various graphs, you’ll notice that one composition stands apart:
Protection Paladin, Discipline Priest, Frost DK, Augmentation Evoker, and
Enhancement Shaman. Once you get to the +7 and up ranges, this composition takes root – and continues to dominate as the keystones get higher. This culminates in the +16 and Up range, where it accounts for 39.7% of all group compositions for Week 11, and 41.4% of all group compositions for the entire Season.

While there are absolutely other top tier specs completing these top dungeons, it’s interesting to note the stark drop-off between this top group composition and the next. Clearly there is some synergy amongst these specs that the highest key pushers have determined is the best in the game at the moment.

Insofar as Week 11 goes, we haven’t seen any kind of shifts or changes in the popular compositions as a result of the recent class tuning and nerfs. However, these types of things are more gradual, so we’ll keep an eye out as the Season progresses.

Success Rates by Dungeon

It’s time for our next Data Dive staple, as we examine how often groups were able to successfully time each of the Dungeons available for Mythic+ in Season 1, at various keystone levels. Instead of looking at the same keystone ranges as above, we will now hone in on some specific levels that players may be targeting for gear rewards. We’ve also added the newest +16 and Up range for those of you that are looking to push to the top of the Leaderboards!

To illustrate the Success Rates, we use a Box Plot graph.


We wanted to introduce these graphs indicating Success Rate by Dungeon because we believe they can help your dungeon groups make informed decisions. If your goal is to time any dungeon at level +9 or +10 to get Gilded Crests and/or Mythic-level gear, or if you’re trying to get Heroic-level gear at +7, these graphs can help you determine which dungeons will statistically give you the higher chances of success!

WHAT DOES THIS DATA MEAN FOR ME?

We are not seeing much difference in the above graphs on a week-by-week basis at this point. What this tells us is that the routes, by and large, have all been figured out, and where each dungeon sits in difficulty comparative to the others has normalized.

Grim Batol continues to be the dungeon with the lowest success rate as soon as we hit the +10 threshold, and it’s a significant jump downwards. If your goal is to run +10s or higher for Mythic-level Vault gear, this data suggests that you might want to avoid GB, and instead should opt for Mists of Tirna Scithe and The Dawnbreaker for the highest chances of success. Ara-Kara, City of Echoes also looks to have a strong success rate, but you’ll want to take notice of the Whiskers for this dungeon compared to Mists and Dawnbreaker. There’s more variance in success – meaning that if you head to Ara-Kara, you have a good chance of timing the dungeon, but it is by no means guaranteed.

We noted last week how it was interesting to see Necrotic Wake jump to the top of the success table once we hit the +16 and Up range, but this week it has been overtaken by Ara-Kara, City of Echoes. NW still sits in the number 2 spot though, so clearly it’s something groups are still running – and running well – at the highest levels.

We’ve included a table at the bottom of this graph to give another way of representing the data. It’s the same information powering the graph itself, but simply another visualization. We hope this might help some people make more sense of the graph.

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HOW TO INTERPRET BOX PLOT GRAPHS

The X-Axis shows Time Remaining as % of Dungeon Timer. As 0% means a dungeon was completed, in-time, at the exact timer (00:00:00 time remaining), higher numbers (5% and up) mean that the dungeon was completed with time remaining. The higher the number, the faster the dungeon was completed by percentage of the timer. Dungeons on the left of 0% were thus depleted, and where they land on the X-Axis shows by what percentage of the timer they were depleted.

The box in the middle of each bar shows the Inter Quartile Range, or IQR. This is where the middle 50% of dungeons fall. If the box is small, it indicates that dungeon completion times were very consistent. If the box is large, it means there is greater variability in completion times.

The line in the middle of the box represents the Median Clear Time. If this line is closer to the left of the box, this indicates the distribution is skewed towards slower times, and vice versa.

The Whiskers, the lines that come out of each side of the box, indicate the range of the data outside the IQR (the middle 50% of all dungeons completed). This shows how far the data spreads. If the Whiskers are long, it suggests there is a wide range of dungeon clear times, suggesting the performance varies more. Shorter Whiskers indicate more consistent results, and if they are asymmetrical, it shows that the data is skewed in a particular direction (depleted vs. completed in-time).

Outliers are singular dungeons that fall way out of the range. We have only chosen to show positive outliers, meaning dungeons that were completed significantly faster than the average. Those are represented by a dot, should they exist.

Total Mythic+ Dungeons Completed

We’ve revamped this set of graphs, and we’re now able to show more data! Previously, we only showed data on dungeons that were completed in-time, but now we’re able to show how many dungeons were attempted, timed, and depleted across the various thresholds! The red section on each bar represents how many dungeons were depleted, while blue represents timed. We’ve also included a handy table at the bottom for another way to visualize the same data.

The second set of graphs is the same data, just drilled down to show only Week 11, and separated by dungeon. Grim Batol on a +16, anyone?





It’s quite interesting to see that the vast majority of Mythic+ keystones attempted last week, were completed in-time. However, once we hit the higher levels, take a look at those success rates of the likes of Grim Batol, Siege of Boralus, and City of Threads. Those dungeons are definitely putting up a fight. Grim Batol in particular seems to be the dungeon nobody wants to do at the highest levels. By looking at Total Runs in the graph above, we can see that Grim Batol was only attempted a total of 79 times last week at +16 and Up, compared to Mists of Tirna Scithe, which was attempted a whopping 600 more times.

Most Popular Specializations

A highly requested data set is finally here! With our graph and stats updates, we’re now able to show Spec Popularity! 🥳 As this is a new data set, and there’s so many different things we can show with it, we figured we’d start with a macro level look at Season 1 of The War Within. The below graphs show Spec Popularity sorted by Role, for All Keystone Levels, across the entirety of Season 1 so far. We’ve also opted to keep the data across all dungeons, both completed in-time and depleted, to get a really good sense of just how many people are playing which specs.

In next week’s Data Dive, we’ll probably drill down into more specific keystone ranges and look at how things have changed throughout the Season – but to start, here’s an overview of Spec Popularity across Season 1!

Break the Meta!

Just another reminder that Break the Meta is back this coming reset! The Seasonal event was announced last week, and we’re excited for yet another round of amazing prizes, keystone group comps, and shenanigans.

We’ve spent so many weeks talking about the Mythic+ meta, and analyzing its progression… now it’s time to go break it to pieces!

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Hey WoW Esports fans, have you seen our new Events Insights and Events Standings pages? If you like our Data Dives, you’ll love the statistics available in easy-to-digest graphs and charts!

Stay tuned for more Data Dives!

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